Tech Trade Gain/Loss Probabilities

[cgalik]

Hello all,
So there's been some changes and chatter regarding the changes in LT31 to slow down string research (which I think it a good idea in a game with lots of players). Could someone summarize the probabilities for gaining/loss in trade and conquering? That'd be helpful to me. Thanks in advance.
-Charlie

[elrik]

I wrote it alreadz on second topic:) Please:

To make it perfectly clear for everyone:)

Tech can be transfered in 3 ways:
- diplomacy agreement
- stealing- with action success rate 70%, diplo can steal once per city, spy more
- capturing cities

Each time you perform ANY of this actions game make 2 test:
- if source lose tech (20%)
- if target lose(70%)

that means each time there are 4 results possible:
1, 1 - 0,8*0,3 = 24% (Wieder you are probably right that it is too high)
1, 0 - 0,8*0,7 = 56%
0, 1 - 0,2*0,3 = 6%
0, 0 - 0,2*0,7 = 14%

If you choose a diplomacy agreement as a way of tech exchange and you pass techlose test target will get penaulty of 100% cost of traded tech.

As Wieder wrote in game chat, you can use hub cities for exchange without penaulty but before spies you have to use conquer. So each try will give pop lose too.

[elrik]

And small talk with Wieder from game chat. There is a lot of interesting ideas for discussion. So if you have some time to read it, enjoy and share your opinion:)

<Elrik> hello
<Elrik> it looks that i missed some aspects of techtrade:)
<Elrik> i hope that this game will be interesting anyway
<Elrik> it is kind of a test game, with so many changes it was impossible to set everything right
<Elrik> so everyone please write on forum what do you want to change/improve and why
ollikka has connected from as91-93.tontut.fi (player Ollikka).
<Wieder> Aspects?
<Wieder> What kind of aspects?
<Wieder> The current ruleset makes it somewhat harder to trade techs because the success rate is about 63% and the possibility to lose the traded tech is 37%.
hasp93 has connected from 86.111.21.155 (player Hasp93).
Lost connection: hasp93 from 86.111.21.155 (read error) (player Hasp93).
<Elrik> walls - it is a big mistake from me:)
<Wieder> Why? The odds are not too good even with the walls
<Wieder> The success rate is only 63% and you need that city + units + lots of work to do the trade
<Elrik> we will see how does it work
<Wieder> And you probably need more than one city for one alliance
<Elrik> true
<Wieder> If the alliance size is more that 2
<Elrik> and you can`t choose tech
<Elrik> it is important too
<Wieder> I just wonder if the intention is to make transferring techs into something that's not economical?
<Wieder> That's very important for the trades. In this model transferring techs will be done mostly inside alliances
<Wieder> But I have to ask this once again.. Sorry What are you trying to cure with making it very hard to give techs to an another player?
<Wieder> Do you want the game to work at a slower pace? Or is it important to prevent small undeveloped countries to catch up?
<Wieder> Or perhaps preventing large alliances?
mrsynical has connected from 125-237-8-82.jetstream.xtra.co.nz (player Mrsynical).
<Wieder> Hallo mr. syn
<Elrik> we`ve made that options to prevent free tech trade
<Elrik> due to it game was MUCH faster than it should be
<Elrik> string science was terrible
<Wieder> Yes, but what do you want to archieve with preventing free tech trade? Too fast gameplay or something else?
<Wieder> String science? What's that in Freeciv?
<Elrik> 3 players, all making same tech
<Elrik> 1 finish and give to 2 others
<Elrik> for example
<Wieder> Too fast? Hmm.. Well.. I thought we had a limit of 180 turns for LT30 and it took 120 turns for the game to be in a status that the winner was known
<Mrsynical> hi
<Wieder> Yes, I see your point. That's a very good point.
kull has connected from co1-84-90-98-179.netvisao.pt (player Kull).
<Elrik> and there were more in mind
<Wieder> The LT31 ruleset should make this game much slower. Perhaps it will take 200-250 turns to do all the techs.
<Elrik> due to the extremaly tech speed most games was too fast in advanced part
<Wieder> In the sense of the RTS or developing cities with new techs?
<Elrik> making science more expensive was once more not a solution couse all you needed was more players in string
<Elrik> almost no war was in early part of game
<Mrsynical> don't worry about trying keep fiddling with the rules. just see how it goes. this game will be totally different from last games, so don't try and make the rules the same as the last game.
<Wieder> I'm not trying to change the rules for LT31
<Wieder> Don't worry about that. The rules are what they are.
<Elrik> there were almost no point in fighting in early part couse you always ended on the field with cats vs muskets
<Elrik> we want to make tech progress slower
<Mrsynical> I'm talking to elrik (about trying to change the rules)
<Elrik> before there were ONLY possibilities of making sceince faster, and no ones for slowing it down
<Wieder> our alliance was fighting a war from T4 to the end of the game
<Elrik> i am talking about average game look in my last 20 games:)
<Elrik> once we spottet this problem maho made techlose path
<Elrik> patch
<Elrik> in 2.0 clience
<Elrik> client
<Wieder> Oh.. Well.. I was taling about games with *lots* of players. That changes everything.
<Elrik> science can be even faster:)
<Wieder> Science can be faster, true
<Elrik> i remember science in lt30
<Elrik> it was exactly the same
<Elrik> i was one of the scientists
<Elrik> we was planning that like standart string science
<Wieder> I'm just worried that lots of fun is gone with removing tech trading or making it too difficult
<Elrik> so maybe stealing should have techlose for source ~50-60% chance?
<Elrik> to use it as off action?:)
<Elrik> but do you see know what was behind this settings?
<Wieder> For source? Well.. That makes alliances even bigger
<Elrik> and what we were trying to achieve?
<Mrsynical> can somebody please confirm a size 2 city making a settler won't disband and will save shields till it is size 3??
<Elrik> i mean that you have 60% chance of deleting tech from your target
<Elrik> yes
<Elrik> it won`t
<Wieder> We had this strategy that no new techs were given for the border nations and the border nations conquered all the new cities. That's how we prevented lots of stealing
<Elrik> unless you select this option in city window
{Mrsynical} thanks
{Mrsynical} glad you guys are finally discussing things now
Lost connection: mrsynical from 125-237-8-82.jetstream.xtra.co.nz (client disconnected) (player Mrsynical).
<Elrik> now as we know each other goals we can discuss about solutions:)
<Wieder> That would work in a model where you can delete techs. Border nations conquer the cities and those natios you can't steal from, fight the actual war
<Elrik> i am sure that what i proposed is the best way:)
<Elrik> hehe
<Elrik> ihmm
<Elrik> techlose is not separated
<Elrik> so no 60% for source
<Wieder> Just to make sure. You want to make the game proceed slower and make nations to be on same level on tech just to make early wars possible?
<Elrik> not exactly, i want to prevent insane tech boost from string research
bamskamp has connected from 193.10.99.49 (player Bamskamp).
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<Elrik> when you can make science for example 5x faster
bamskamp has connected from 193.10.99.49 (player Bamskamp).
<Elrik> with 5 players invvolved
<Wieder> That's true
<Wieder> I don't think it's possible to prevent science strings if you can do profitable trades.
<Wieder> You can slow it down but not prevent it.
<Elrik> true
<Wieder> The question is, that is slowing down enough?
<Elrik> thats why we can now talk about solutions:)
<Elrik> we had a game with techlose 115% and it was interesting
<Elrik> 35% 80% or something like that
<Wieder> Yeah. But you should make the probability to lose the tech, for both receiver and giver, something like 50% to prevent profitable trades
<Elrik> i know it is not perfect, but we didn`t have other settings then
<Elrik> some % for techlose together with some penaulties from every kind of exchange and lovering techcost for the otehrs should work
<Elrik> but once more there is a question if making techs cheaper for the otehrs makes game too fast:)
<Wieder> That's a solution if you want to prevent the trades, but that opens lots of opportunities for different kind of strategies
<Elrik> true
<Elrik> i definately want to try it in next game:)
<Wieder> Balancing is important, but then again, having a good game should be also important. I'm just wondering if destroying techs is that fun after all if the game stops proceeding
<Elrik> well... higher techlose didn`t destroy game:)
<Wieder> This is a really difficult topic
<Elrik> we will see how it works
<Elrik> time to go back to work:)
<Wieder> yeah.. If it would be possible to destroy lots of techs...
<Elrik> probably there is more settings which can be tuned for more fun for everyone
<Wieder> it would be an great asset for an alliance to have one really underdeveloped country
<Elrik> the only problem is that you can really use it since spies are in game
<Wieder> that would attack with diplomats only, destroying the others
<Wieder> That's true. But then again it would make spies the ultimate weapon
<Elrik> kind of, but... losing tech is not downgrading units:)
<Wieder> One possibility to slow down the tech could be that the game would take a 'fee' from every tech trade. In gold.
<Wieder> But that would require coding.
<Elrik> hmm
<Wieder> Yeah, you would have the units but the production would halt
<Elrik> what if penaulty setting works for both sides?
<Wieder> Hmm...
<Elrik> with right value it can be like a fee:)
<Wieder> One underdeveloped country attacking with spies. That would render it useless.
<Wieder> It would also make it hard to attack anyone because stealing techs would kill your own techs
<Elrik> will not kill you own tech, only your own bulbs
<Elrik> it is a difference
<Wieder> Maybe we should have a vote about LT32?
<Elrik> i am talking about lt32
<Elrik>
<Wieder> Just to see what kind of stuff people like or dislike
<Elrik> i think that such change should not be difficult to add
<Elrik> for developers
<Wieder> yeah, I knew we both were talking about LT32
<Elrik> sending scientists which will teach your ally will reduce your possibilities:)
<Wieder> I know also that many players were almost dropping the game because of making trading so hard. I'm not but I know it can be an issue
<Elrik> hmm
<Elrik> freetrade makes game a lot easier for some players:)
<Elrik> take all science from researcher and fight only:)
<Wieder> Yes, and that also makes some playing styles possible
<Wieder> yes, that's it
<Wieder> Some people like to fight and some want to build that sim city world with lots of scientist
<Wieder> It's up to the fighters to protect the scientist
<Elrik> and as usuall it is impossible to please everyone:)
<Wieder> Yeah
<Elrik> if only string science is impossible
<Elrik> the only way is make penaulty for every action very high
<Elrik> for fighters it is no difference
<Wieder> There is one way to prevent free trading all around the world
<Wieder> while allowing it
<Elrik> true
<Wieder> If the gave was played with teams, that would solve the problem
<Wieder> And also while preventing trading between alliances
<Elrik> but in every solution i really like to leave some % for source lose
<Elrik> just for fun:)
<Wieder> That might actually be very interesting for an islands map
<Elrik> for reasearcher it is also not a problem:)
<Wieder> Losing the tech is just a question probabilities
<Wieder> Now in LT31 that's 37%
<Wieder> I'm not a fan of losing techs but it's not an major issue for me either
<Wieder> Voting about that would be nice
<Elrik> true
<Wieder> Actually.. 4 preselected teams for a game/map like LT31 would be interesting
<Elrik> hmm maybe we should paste the log of this talk on forum?:)
<Elrik> there is a lot of informations there:) if anyone wants to read that:)
<Wieder> Sure, that would make this discussion more usefull
<Wieder> Yeah
<Elrik> i will do it later:) now i have to be back to work:)
<Wieder> Ok, cu

[Xercise]

Thanks for the above... one comment: If/When there is LT32 it might indeed be good to consider preset teams. As a newcomer to longturn games, I am a little worried that more experienced players will just go off in their alliances and leave others, who are new to the game to fend for themselves. It is much harder for newcomers to create a team from scratch when they have no idea who to trust or how to communicate effectively...

And for lt31: Let's be open about our alliances and take some chances on newcomers... it'll make the game more interesting (I do not just say that for my own sake).

Cheers, Xercise

[Archont]

<Wieder> One possibility to slow down the tech could be that the game would take a 'fee' from every tech trade. In gold.

This.

There should be license agreements between players instead of free tech trading. The fee might be implemented as paid once or constantly, for every unit/building built by licensee player. Using this feature without limits would literally drain licensee's treasury to zero. Clean and elegant solution. And more realistic than techloss feature.

<Wieder> But that would require coding.

And that's the problem...

[mrsynical]

We have tried pre-set teams. The good players will form teams amongst themselves. We have tried school-yard pick (kindof works). I think in the past most groups have been open to adopting a newbie into their alliance.

Thanks for the above... one comment: If/When there is LT32 it might indeed be good to consider preset teams. As a newcomer to longturn games, I am a little worried that more experienced players will just go off in their alliances and leave others, who are new to the game to fend for themselves. It is much harder for newcomers to create a team from scratch when they have no idea who to trust or how to communicate effectively...

And for lt31: Let's be open about our alliances and take some chances on newcomers... it'll make the game more interesting (I do not just say that for my own sake).

Cheers, Xercise

[det0r]

That is one of the reasons why we have rules to discourage mass tech swapping Xercise - it means that people who form early alliances (because they already know each other) don't get a major advantage. I think you will find most people are happy to help out/work with newbies - we all had to learn the game mechanics at some point! People just don't want to carry dead weight e.g. players who go idle, or don't listen to advice.

[Xercise]

Thanks - yes, that makes sense!

[kull]

Excelent discussion!
I read a question about the doudbt of create a settler and try to disband the citie....i confirm that it will not disband in LT31 because i try to disband a city and lost a few turns figuring why do not disband....

About the LT32 with pre-set teams in island will be nice to have and i will join in for sure. But i also want to propose to allow tech trading in pre-set team game, because will open more strategies for alliances and could increase competitivity, because players will be more leverage between them selfs.

[chomwitt]

What does 'string research' means ?